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Nov. 20 - "He who has burned his lips on boiling milk will blow on =
yogurt," says an old Turkish proverb. Yet playing with fire comes with =
Turkey's territory. Muslim but not Arab, its territory, like its =
national identity, is split between Europe and Asia. The country =
currently is governed by an openly Islamic Party, yet the party's =
leader, Prime Minister Recep Erdogan, is firmly committed to keeping =
religion and politics separate. Indeed, Turkey experts suspect the =
recent wave of terrorist bombings in Istanbul may be precisely about =
this paradox, for what greater threat is there to Islamic militants than =
a secular Islamic democracy?

      "AS A Muslim political leader who embraces Islam but refuses to =
break the Turkish tradition of secular politics, he represents a real =
threat to the Sunni terrorist groups behind these bombings," says David =
Phillips, an authority on Turkish politics and senior fellow at the =
Council on Foreign Relations. "It's close economic and military ties =
with Israel, its links to the U.S. as the historical eastern flank of =
NATO put Turkey in a difficult position."=20
             Turkey is a state like no other in the Middle East world. =
Founded on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, its =
constitution explicitly rejects the idea that Islam or any religion =
should hold a special place in politics. This was, historians suggest, a =
reaction to the centrality of the religion in the Ottoman system, =
personified by the Sultan, a series of whom fiddled for centuries while =
what was once the world's most powerful empire crumbled away. =20
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            The governing party today, the Justice and Development =
Party, is the modern expression of this idea. Though the last decade, it =
has been called many things - the Welfare Party, the Virtue Party - only =
to be found in violation of Turkey's strict secularization laws and =
banned. In its present form, it has led Turkey since Nov. 2002 and "has =
continued to maintain [the modern nation's founder] Ataturk's secular =
vision," Phillips says.=20
             "There's a very small minority in Turkey that reject EU =
membership and integration into western institutions, including NATO," =
says Phillips, who was until recently an advisor to the State Department =
on policy in the region. "An overwhelming majority of Turks in all =
stratas of society recognize that Turkey's interests are with the west." =

             Still, Turkey's many paradoxes place it at the crossroads =
of many international conflicts and of historic animosities.=20
       Many European and Middle Eastern nations retain a strong =
suspicion of Turkey, which they view as the modern successor to the =
Ottoman Empire that ruled, at one time or another, most of the Balkans =
from Croatia to Greece, the Mediterranean basin from southern Spain to =
Egypt, the Holy Land and Levant right into present day Iraq. While the =
Ottoman Empire collapsed after World War I, a reminder of this lingering =
animosity surfaced last month when Iraqis of all stripes rejected the =
idea of welcoming Turkish troops into Iraq to help pacify the country. =
Conflict still flares occasionally with Greece over the divided island =
of Cyprus.
       Istanbul, the one-time capital of the Ottoman Empire and seat of =
the Islamic caliphate, is regarded as a holy place by Muslims. =20
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                 . Bin Laden: Alleged targets, operations and =
colleagues=20
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            Al-Qaida and other Sunni terrorist groups list as a major =
goal the "restoration of the caliphate," the reign of the Ottoman Sultan =
who until the collapse of the Ottoman Empire was the leader of the one, =
unified Islamic state. This gives attacks inside Istanbul a special =
symbolism to the more dogmatic of Islam's murderers.=20
       Turkey is the only Muslim state to have recognized Israel (1949) =
and, more seriously in the eyes of hard-line Arabs, to have signed an =
economic and military treaty with it. The 1996 Israeli-Turkish military =
treaty centered on exchange of intelligence information, joint exercises =
and weapons purchases. It figures little in the American press, but each =
time Turkish and Israeli destroyers exercise together in the =
Mediterranean, a torrent of howling about the conspiracy of "Zionist and =
Kemalist fanatics," as one Lebanese paper put it, pours forth.=20
       At the same time, Turkey has been trying since the late 1980s to =
win admission into the European Union, and has watched with increasing =
frustration as the "new democracies" of Eastern Europe leap frog it and =
join up as its bid continues to be described as "a decade away at =
least." The Turkish economy is large and industrialized, but the EU =
fears that Turkey's backward agricultural sector, combined with its low =
national income (which would qualify it for enormous EU subsidies as a =
member) would drain European coffers. Also a problem frequently cited: =
Turkey's poor but improving human rights record, particularly in regard =
to minorities. =20
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            Click for more scenes for the deadly bombings in Istanbul =20
           =20
       Finally, as a country crisscrossed by oil and gas pipelines, =
sitting astride strategic waterways and bordering Syria, Iraq, Iran, and =
the former Soviet republics of Armenia and Georgia, Turkey is viewed as =
a tremendous strategic ally by the United States. This has won it =
friends in Washington, but also magnifies any instance of disagreement =
enormously.=20
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      DIPLOMATIC NIGHTMARE
             Balancing all of these contending forces is a diplomatic =
nightmare. Yet Turkey is no stranger to fault lines, geological, =
religious, political or otherwise.=20
             Just consider the instability of this year, alone.=20
             During the early part of 2003, Turkey came under enormous =
pressure from the United States to allow the 4th Infantry Division to =
attack into northern Iraq from its territory, and equally overt pressure =
from its most important European ally, Germany, to reject the idea.=20
             With the Iraq war as tremendously unpopular among Turks as =
it was in most of the rest of the world, ultimately American negotiators =
could not convince Turkey (or pay it enough) to allow U.S. troops in. =
American-backed loans and credits of up to $8.5 billion were put on =
hold, and Turkey's economy sagged once more toward complete collapse.=20
             Grief came from another side, too. As war approached, =
Turkey asked NATO to live up to its treaty obligations and help set up =
refugee camps and generally prepare defense in Turkey in case Iraq =
should lash out. Yet NATO, dominated by European states opposed to the =
war, refused. Coupled with continuing rejection from the European Union, =
which regards Turkey's economy as too backward to admit in the =
foreseeable future, this led to a collapse of Turkey's stock market.=20
             The war and friction with Europe cost Turkey enormously, =
not just in lost U.S. aid that would have flowed if American troops were =
allowed in, but in the ability to influence events across the border in =
Iraq once Saddam fell.
             Turkey's powerful military, which had lobbied to let the =
American troops in, feared that the refusal to do so might force the =
U.S. ever closer with Turkey's ethnic enemies, the Kurds. =20

Turkey is tremendously fearful that Kurds in Iraq will declare their own =
state, emboldening Turkish Kurds to try and expand its borders onto =
territory now ruled by Ankara.=20
       Memories of bloody Kurdish terrorist attacks and equally bloody =
Turkish reprisals are fresh. Beginning in the 1970s and ending only in =
1999, Turkey fought a brutal counter-insurgency with the Kurdistan =
Workers Party or PKK, who used random bombings and massacres to try and =
win an independent state in the mountainous southeastern region of =
Turkey. The efforts ended in 1999 with a cease-fire after the capture of =
the PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.

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