From: Mustafa Akgul (akgul@Bilkent.EDU.TR)
Date: Tue 01 Aug 2000 - 08:01:10 EEST
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NUA INTERNET SURVEYS - The Number One Resource for Statistics
Free Weekly Email For Latest Information & Trends on the Internet.
Email: surveys@nua.ie Web: http://www.nua.ie/surveys/
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July 31st 2000 Published By: Nua Limited Volume 5 No. 29
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CONTENT
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EDITORIAL:
"Although these statistics seem staggering
by themselves, they pale in comparison to
the numbers and implications in some other
recent reports. These suggest that the
internet is growing far more uncontrollably
than is commonly known, and that there are
real dangers of the system breaking down
entirely."
Kathy Foley in 'Web Growth, Web Dangers'
BUSINESS USE
:CEOs Unmoved by E-business Hype
:B2B Revenues to Top USD1 Trillion by 2003
E-COMMERCE
:Ecommerce Causes Tax Shortfall in US
:Online Purchases Look Likely to Grow
ENTERTAINMENT
:Internet Gambling Wins in the UK
:Online Subscriptions Key to Digital Music Sales
FINANCIAL SERVICES
:Online Banking to be Mainstream in US by 2004
GENERAL DEMOGRAPHICS
:Almost a Third of Taiwanese Online
:Asian Internet Users to Triple by 2003
:Cubans Surf Toward Freedom of Information
INFRASTRUCTURES
:Internet Could Crash from Malicious Attack
:Web Is Bigger Than We Thought
IT/COMPUTER INDUSTRY
:Rapid Change in European IT Services
USAGE PATTERNS
:Non-meat Eaters Keen Online Shoppers
:Canadians Benefit Hugely from Internet
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EDITORIAL: Web Growth, Web Dangers
<http://www.nua.ie/surveys/analysis/weekly_editorial.html>
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Not many people know this but the 15th of March, 1985 is a notable
date in Internet history. According to a newly compiled history of
the Internet written by David Goldstein of the Austrian domain name
authority, that was the day the first Internet domain name was
registered. That domain name was www.symbolics.com. In the
intervening 15 years, almost 18 million more domain names have
been registered and there are now about 10 million live websites.
Although these statistics seem staggering by themselves, they
pale in comparison to the numbers and implications in some other
recent reports. These suggest that the internet is growing far
more uncontrollably than is commonly known, and that there are
real dangers of the system breaking down entirely.
A study released last week by BrightPlanet, a South Dakota-based
start-up that has developed software to search the "deep Web",
says that search engines such as Yahoo! or Google only index the
content on the surface of the Internet. They do not delve into
the deep Web, which includes the increasing amount of information
stored in "giant evolving databases set up by government agencies,
universities and corporations".
Therefore, recent estimates of 1 or 2 billion for the number of
pages on the Internet are inadequate as they refer to the number
of 'surface' web pages. BrightPlanet says there are actually over
550 billion documents on the Internet. Five hundred and fifty
billion: that's about 90 documents online for every man, woman
and child on the planet.
For the full story, go to:
http://www.nua.ie/surveys/analysis/weekly_editorial/archives/issue1no137.html
For archives of editorials, go to:
http://www.nua.ie/surveys/analysis/weekly_editorial/archives/index.html
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BUSINESS USE
Archives: <http://www.nua.ie/surveys/index.cgi?f=FS&cat_id=6>
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A.T. Kearney: CEOs Unmoved by E-business Hype
Despite the hype surrounding b2b ecommerce, only 4 percent of CEOs
interviewed by management consulting firm AT Kearney say that e-business
is their main challenge. Only 1 percent say e-business is now a critical
success factor for their firm.
E-business is considered somewhat important, however, and 72 percent of
the CEOs said their companies are active in creating or maintaining an
e-business strategy. Only 57 percent of these said their online business
strategy was integrated with their company's overall business strategy.
Only 18 percent of the CEOs polled were seriously interested in taking
part in online auctions and trading exchanges. Almost half were not
interested and 26 percent said they were moderately serious about
joining these online marketplaces.
Over 4 in 5 of the North American CEOs said their firm engaged in
e-business, while 72 percent of the European executives and 65 percent
of both the Asian and the Latin American executives said the same.
Corporate IT investment will continue to remain strong as 77 percent of
those surveyed said their company's investment in IT would increase over
the next three years. The average projected increase was 53 percent but
a third said their IT investment would more than double by 2003.
The study, released by global management consulting firm AT Kearney, was
based on interviews with 251 CEOs from 26 countries across 10 industry
segments.
<http://www.atkearney.com/ATK/NewsReleases/detail/1,1078,1368,00.html>
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eMarketer: B2B Revenues to Top USD1 Trillion by 2003
Global business ecommerce revenues are set to grow from USD185 billion
this year to USD336.2 billion next year, USD684.3 billion in 2002 and
USD1.26 trillion in 2003.
These figures are drawn from a new report by eMarketer. The report also
predicts that b2b ecommerce will account for 79.2 percent of total
ecommerce this year, 82.5 percent next year, 85 percent in 2002 and 87
percent in 2003.
The US will continue to be the biggest b2b market through to 2003, when
online business transactions there will constitute 59 percent of the
global total. In 2003, US b2b ecommerce revenues will total USD747
billion, while European b2b revenues will amount to USD365.6 billion.
The total for Asia will be USD76.6 billion.
eMarketer also forecasts that online business marketplaces and exchanges
will gain in popularity and grow in complexity. Small businesses will
become the major users of such marketplaces. Only 8 percent of small
businesses with Internet access engage in ecommerce now, but this will
rise to 72 percent by 2003, equalling USD230 billion in revenue.
<http://www.emarketer.com/ereports/ecommerce_b2b/welcome.html?ref=ds>
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E-COMMERCE
Archives: <http://www.nua.ie/surveys/index.cgi?f=FS&cat_id=14>
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ABC News: Ecommerce Causes Tax Shortfall in US
Between USD300 million and USD3.8 billion of potential tax revenue will
be lost by authorities in the US this year as more and more consumers
shop on the Internet.
The revenue is lost because online retailers need to impose sales or use
tax only when goods are being sent to a consumer who lives in a state
where the retailer has a bricks-and-mortar store. Buyers are supposed to
voluntarily pay the appropriate sales taxes when buying online but this
rarely happens in practice. This makes the Internet a largely tax-free
area in the US.
According to the General Accounting Office (GAO), the investigative wing
of the US Congress, the disparity in the estimate of revenues lost is
due to the difficulties in documenting Internet sales.
Texas and California are set to lose out more than any other states,
with up to USD342 million in tax unpaid in Texas and up to USD533
million tax unpaid in California.
Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire and Oregon do not have sales or use
taxes and will not lose out to ecommerce.
The GAO conducted its research at the request of Republican Senator
George Voinovich from Ohio, who is in favour of taxing ecommerce.
<http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/DailyNews/internettaxes000725.html>
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Taylor Nelson Sofres: Online Purchases Look Likely to Grow
The latest ecommerce report released by Taylor Nelson Sofres indicates
that 10 percent of global surfers shop online in any one month. A
further 15 percent have thought about making an online purchase, but
have yet to buy.
The research findings are contained in the 'Global Ecommerce Report --
July 2000', for which Taylor Nelson Sofres interviewed over 30,000
people from 27 different countries.
The US had the highest Internet penetration of the countries studied,
with 58 percent of the population online, and the highest proportion of
online shoppers, at 27 percent of the total population.
Average Internet usage across those countries surveyed was 27 percent.
About 15 percent of all those polled plan to purchase online in the next
six months while 13 percent of users have used information about a
product or service found on the Net to make a purchase offline.
Of those who had already shopped online, 29 percent bought books and 20
percent bought CDs.
The report advises businesses to think carefully about the online
shopping experience being offered to possible consumers. Tax legislation
and local government issues must be resolved if online purchasing is to
prosper.
<http://worldwide.tnsofres.com/ger/>
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ENTERTAINMENT
Archives: <http://www.nua.ie/surveys/index.cgi?f=FS&cat_id=48>
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Forrester Research: Internet Gambling Wins in the UK
Online gambling sites in the UK are attracting increasing numbers of
users with alternative types of betting and easy-to-use interfaces.
According to Forrester's 'UK Internet User Monitor', 5 percent of UK
Internet users visited gambling sites and 2 percent bet online in the
three months prior to being surveyed.
The profile of online gamblers is quite different to that of their
offline counterparts. Women and inexperienced gamblers are more likely
to bet online than in a traditional betting shop, as they do not have to
brave the intimidating atmosphere of a bricks-and-mortar betting shop.
Online bookmakers offer odds on sports other than horse-racing, the
traditional preserve of offline betting shops. People in higher-income
groups are more likely to be fans of golf, tennis, cricket and
motor-racing and they can bet on these sports online.
Internet users can also gamble on non-sport issues, such as celebrities'
love lives or soap opera storylines. Gambling sites also facilitate
person-to-person betting, without getting involved in setting odds or
stake sizes.
None of the new-style betting options cannibalise the traditional
gambling demographic, which means that bookmakers' revenue is increased.
<http://www.forrester.com/ER/Research/Brief/Excerpt/0,1317,9646,FF.html>
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Jupiter Communications: Online Subscriptions Key to Digital Music Sales
Web users have succeeded in transforming online music sales into a
mass-market sector in the US, according to Jupiter Communications. This
is exceptional given that no big labels from the offline music industry
have harnessed the Internet as a sales channel so far.
While individual downloads will continue to be a useful marketing
strategy, most digital music sales will come in the form of online
subscriptions.
Jupiter expects that online music sales will corner a quarter of the
total US music market by 2005, with digitally distributed music
accounting for USD1.5 billion of music sales on the Internet.
Record labels who wish to remain competitive in the era of online music
should consider licensing their catalogues to third-party digital music
subscribers, thus ensuring their survival in the digital age.
With the growth of networked music sharing via facilities such as
Napster, consumers seem ready for subscription services, which should
account for USD 980 million by 2005, as opposed to individual song
downloads, which will grow to USD 531 million within the same period.
The big hurdle remaining for subscription service providers will be to
convince online music fans to make the move from free services like
Napster and Gnutella to paying for online subscriptions. One way of
winning them over will be the provision of reliable file quality and
virus protection.
This Jupiter report largely mirrors a recent Cyber Dialogue study which
showed that the proliferation of digital music distribution services is
attracting music fans online in large numbers.
<http://www.jup.com/company/pressrelease.jsp?doc=pr000724>
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FINANCIAL SERVICES
Archives: <http://www.nua.ie/surveys/index.cgi?f=FS&cat_id=4>
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IDC Research: Online Banking to be Mainstream in US by 2004
More and more US Internet users are banking online and a new report from
IDC predicts that 22.8 million US households will be using Internet
banking services by 2004.
The report, 'US Online Banking Market Forecast and Analysis, 2000-2004',
says that traditional banks that have so far resisted the move online
will have to offer Internet banking shortly. If they do not, they will
risk being at a competitive disadvantage in a market where the Internet
is rapidly becoming as mainstream a banking channel as bank branches or
ATMs.
Furthermore, as these traditional banks begin offering services online,
the online-only banks will have to adjust their business models and
strengthen their offerings to remain competitive.
All banks wanting to succeed online will have to offer excellent
technology support, customer service and online banking functionality.
<http://www.idc.com/eBusiness/press/EBIZ071900pr_c.stm>
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GENERAL DEMOGRAPHICS
Archives: <http://www.nua.ie/surveys/index.cgi?f=FS&cat_id=18>
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iamasia: Almost a Third of Taiwanese Online
There are now 6.4 million Internet users in Taiwan, according to
iamasia. This is equivalent to 31 percent of the island's population
over the age of five. Forty-five percent of Taiwanese users are women.
The iamasia NetKnowledge Taiwan report found that Internet users in
Taiwan are generally younger and wealthier than non-users. The average
Internet user is 25 years old with a monthly household income of
TWD88,000 (USD2,840) while the average non-user is 39 years old with a
monthly annual income of TWD61,000 (USD1,970).
Most Taiwanese Internet users (71 percent) go online at home. Forty
percent surf the Web in their place of education, 28 percent in the
office and 7 percent at cybercafes.
Ecommerce is becoming popular in Taiwan. About 10 percent have bought
goods or services online with books, computer products and music CDs
being the most popular purchases.
<http://www.iamasia.com/presscentre/pressrel/pressrel_news.cfm?content_i>d=266>
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Lehman Brothers: Asian Internet Users to Triple by 2003
Increasing PC penetration and improved, cheaper telecommunications
services should see Internet penetration in the Asia-Pacific region
tripling to 233 million over the next three years.
This prediction is made in a new report from Lehman Brothers, 'Asian
Internet Forecasts -- Wiring Up For Growth'. The report also forecasts
that online advertising spending and ecommerce revenues will also
increase rapidly between now and 2003.
Internet advertising revenues will be worth USD5.4 billion in 2005,
compared with USD344 million now, while Asian consumer spending online
will be worth USD57 billion in 2003.
The report emphasises the difference between the developed markets of
North Asia and the rest of the region in terms of projected Internet
penetration rates and the value of ecommerce and advertising spending.
Lehman Brothers also advises investors to focus on companies with broad
regional exposure or on markets with attractive short-term growth
prospects, such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
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ABC News:Cubans Surf Toward Freedom of Information
As more people log onto the Internet in Cuba, Government control of
information is becoming more difficult, according to a report on
abcNEWS.com.
The Cuban Government says that there is now 1 computer for every 100
people in Cuba and 40,000 Cubans (not including students and tourists)
have Internet access. The International Telecommunications Union
recently estimated that there were 60,000 Internet users in Cuba.
There are more than 18,000 Cuban-based web pages available on the
Internet and these receive over 15 million hits each week. There are
four Cuban ISPs providing access to the Internet and a number of others
that provide access to a national web.
Internet access to the public is still limited and expensive in Cuba and
users must prove they are engaged in research or belong to an accredited
institution if they want to surf the Web. The Government, however, is
planning to sponsor a programme that will provide Internet access to 150
youth clubs and more than 2,000 post offices.
There are also plans afoot to overhaul Cuba's antiquated
telecommunications infrastructure and install modern phone lines.
Uva de Aragon, assistant director of the Cuban Research Institute at
Florida International University in Miami, says the Internet has given
Cubans a whole new way of communicating, not only in administrative and
academic life, but also on a personal and cultural level.
De Aragon also believes that the Cuban Government will be unable to
censor electronic communications: "It's baby steps, but it is
inevitable. There will be a time when they won't have enough people to
control all the information."
<http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/cubainternet000721.html>
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INFRASTRUCTURES
Archives: <http://www.nua.ie/surveys/index.cgi?f=FS&cat_id=20>
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Notre Dame University: Internet Could Crash from Malicious Attack
Although the complex structure of the Internet ensures that errors or
failures rarely occur, the network depends on a number of very big
nodes, or hubs, through which Internet traffic travels. This means that
a malicious attack on one of those nodes could seriously damage, or even
destroy, the function of the Internet, according to researchers at Notre
Dame University in Indiana.
The researchers compare the structure of the Internet to the airline
network in the US. The majority of airports are small but they are all
connected to larger airports such as Atlanta and New York. The larger
airports are crucial to the function of the network as a whole.
Similarly, if one or more smaller Internet nodes are not working, the
system is not seriously compromised. In fact, an estimated 3 percent of
nodes are down at any given time, but the Internet system copes with
this and users are not affected. The Internet would only seriously
suffer if a major node was attacked and went down .
Albert-Lazlo Barabasi, a structural physicist, said in an interview with
Reuters that this flaw was the Achilles heel of the Internet. "Like
Achilles, it is very hard to kill it (the Internet) but if you know
something about the system then you could.''
<http://www.nd.edu/cgi-bin/news.cgi?article=200007261109 >
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BrightPlanet: Web Is Bigger Than We Thought
According to new research by a South Dakota Internet start-up,
BrightPlanet, the current Web is 500 times bigger than the minimal maps
provided by search engines such as Yahoo, AltaVista or Google.
There are now over 550 billion online documents according to
BrightPlanet, with only about a billion of those indexed through all the
Internet search engines combined. The problem with current search
engines is they only locate surface information, as most are still
incapable of keeping pace with the daily growth of web content.
Yet despite the seeming lack of indexed web pages, most users appear to
be content with the results the traditional search engines yield. NPD
New Media Services conducted a survey earlier this year, and out of
33,000 users found that 81 percent found what they were searching for.
Compare this to a late 1999 survey, which revealed 77 percent were happy
with search-engine results, while just 3 percent said they never found
the right information.
Meanwhile BrightPlanet and similar organisations such as InvisibleWorlds
are endeavouring to find all the information on the Web, but unless they
show users where to start, people will continue to drown in a pool of
info overload.
<http://www.brightplanet.com/newsroom/deepweb.asp>
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IT/COMPUTER INDUSTRY
Archives: <http://www.nua.ie/surveys/index.cgi?f=FS&cat_id=12>
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IDC Research: Rapid Change in European IT Services
IT services in Europe are expected to reach an estimated value of USD184
billion by 2004, up from a 1999 value of USD106 billion, according to
IDC. Add this growth to the increased mergers and acquisitions in the
industry, and it is plain the sector is undergoing a rapid change.
IDC, which is monitoring services trends in the European IT industry,
says this growth represents a compound annual growth rate of 12 percent,
with the systems integration services category predicted to be the
greatest growth sector within the industry.
IDC attributes this growth to various factors including the impact of
ebusiness and the freeing up of budgets from Y2K or Euro-compliant
projects.
Banking retains its lead as the biggest spender on IT services, with
estimated expenditure on external services close to USD18 billion in
1999. IDC believe this lead will continue.
Spending on IT services will be above average in Scandinavia, France and
Italy, while Austria, Switzerland, and Germany are expected to show
below-average growth figures.
IDC has identified a number of trends they believe will occur in the
next five years, including outsourcing of deals, reshaping of business
and services models, continued alliances and partnerships, and more
rapid delivery to customers.
<http://www.idc.com/emea/press/PR/ESV072400PR.stm>
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USAGE PATTERNS
Archives: <http://www.nua.ie/surveys/index.cgi?f=FS&cat_id=34>
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Imaner Consultants: Non-meat Eaters Keen Online Shoppers
Vegans and vegetarians are heavy Internet users and are far more likely
to buy goods and services online than other Internet users are. While
vegetarians do not eat meat, vegans do not eat any animal products,
including meat, milk, cheese and eggs.
According to a new, largely UK-based survey of vegan and vegetarian
Internet users from Imaner Consultants, 68 percent go online at least
once a day and 90 percent log on at least once a week. Over half of
those surveyed said the Internet has made them feel less isolated in
their lifestyle.
Vegans are more likely than the average users to buy from online
retailers. Only 5 percent of the vegans surveyed have not searched for
products online and 73 percent have bought goods and services online,
about twice the national average in the UK.
Those polled are also interested in finding and buying more, better and
cheaper vegan products and services, including a wider choice of shoes
and clothing; more information, listings and labelling; and more vegan
shopping options.
Imaner Consultants has set up a 1000-strong panel of vegans and
vegetarians to study their use of the Internet. About 57 percent of the
respondents are UK based, while 9 percent are from the rest of Europe,
27 percent are from the US and the remaining 7 percent are from the rest
of the world.
<http://www.imaner.co.uk/panel/>
__________________________________________________________________
Angus Reid Group: Canadians Benefit Hugely from Internet
Seventy percent of Canadian adults now have access to the Internet, up
from 55 percent a year ago. This is according to a new joint survey from
the Angus Reid Group and Columbus Group. Analysts expect access numbers
to plateau around 80 percent, with lack of interest being the main
barrier to further growth.
Three-quarters of those polled said the Internet has significantly
affected their life, in terms of education, entertainment and
communication. About 37 percent said the Internet has made them more
knowledgeable and up to date and 13 percent said their life is more fun
with the Internet because of the entertainment options it provides and
the ways it enables users to meet and communicate with new people.
Other benefits cited by respondents included the convenience offered by
online banking, shopping and investing; improved work performance
because of better communication and easier access to information; stress
reduction and heightened awareness of social issues. Two respondents had
met their spouses online.
"It is clear that the Internet has had a profound effect on the life of
the typical Canadian", commented Scott Brownlee, president of Columbus
Group.
"So much of what you hear about the Internet is based on the commerce
point of view. I think a lot of people have forgotten the educational
impact that the Internet has made on the typical end user, and this
research reminds us of how the online user experience enables education
and knowledge transfer."
<http://www.angusreid.com/media/content/displaypr.cfm?id_to_view=1061>
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